USD/JPY Bond Yield Pressure: How Rising Rates Move Dollar-Yen
US 10-year Treasury yield rises only become the dominant USD/JPY driver when the US-Japan nominal yield differential exceeds approximately 350 basis points, below that threshold, risk sentiment (VIX) historically has greater explanatory power. Traders who apply a yield-differential framework in low-differential regimes are using the wrong causal model and risk being systematically wrong on direction. BOJ yield curve control (YCC) policy acts as an artificial ceiling on JGB yields, compressing the differential and making the threshold crossing more abrupt and volatile when it occurs. Regime identification, not yield-level watching, is the primary skill for USD/JPY traders; the correct leading indicator shifts depending on which side of 350bp the differential sits. CoinUnited.io forex CFDs follow the FX week schedule and close at weekends; the weekend gap is a structural risk to manage before Friday close, not a window that stays open.