RBA's Hunter: Inflation 'Not Quite Yet' Done — AUD/USD Leverage Playbook as November Hike Odds Surge to 56%

Event Summary

According to Bloomberg and the RBA's official transcript, RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter stated on 25 October 2026 that inflation was "not quite yet" sufficiently contained despite four rate hikes delivered during 2026. Hunter declined to pre-commit to the November 3 decision, but her remarks reinforce a hawkish policy stance. The RBA's cash rate currently sits at 4.60% following a 25-basis-point hike on 29 September — the fourth increase of 2026.

Market expectations are sharply divided. As reported by CommBank and ANZ research, Westpac and ANZ forecast another 25bp hike to 4.85%, while CommBank and NAB treat a hold as the baseline with meaningful upside risk. Critically, Hunter's comments triggered a swing in market-implied November hike probability — from approximately 24% to 56% — reversing earlier dovish sentiment driven by weak September employment data.

Leverage Impact Analysis

AUD/USD is trading at $0.7037 (24h range: $0.7005–$0.7038), up +0.24% as of the latest data. The pair's compressed 33-pip daily range signals the market is positioned cautiously ahead of November 3 — which is precisely where leveraged opportunity and liquidation risk concentrate.

Long AUD/USD scenario: A trader entering a 100x long AUD/USD CFD at $0.7037 controls a notional position worth 100x the pip value. A 50-pip adverse move to $0.6987 would represent roughly a 0.7% move against the position — equivalent to 70% drawdown at 100x leverage. With the 24h low at $0.7005, that level is an immediate technical test; a break below it would pressure long positions held at current levels.

Short AUD/USD (hold scenario) play: If the RBA holds on November 3 after hawkish guidance, a classic "buy the rumour, sell the fact" reversal could flush AUD/USD toward $0.6950–$0.6960 (prior pulse support zone). Short positions opened near $0.7037 with 50x leverage face liquidation risk if price spikes above $0.7100 on any surprise hike confirmation before the meeting.

This is a classic APAC hawkish pivot setup where leveraged traders must size carefully around the binary November 3 event risk. Funding rate implications for AUD/USD perpetuals should be monitored on CoinUnited.io, as hawkish RBA sentiment typically elevates AUD carry demand.

Cross-Market Impact

The macro inflation pressure signal radiates across multiple asset classes:

• -AUD/JPY: A potential RBA hike widens the AU-JP rate differential further, strengthening the carry case for long AUD/JPY. Watch for acceleration if November hike becomes consensus.
• -NZD/USD: Sympathetic AUD strength typically lifts NZD given APAC correlation; however, RBNZ policy divergence could limit the move.
• -AUD/USD: Front-end Commonwealth bond yields (2–3 year) should rise on increased hike pricing, supporting AUD but flattening the curve if long-end growth expectations lag.
• -ASX 200: Rate-sensitive sectors face headwinds — REITs, property developers, consumer discretionary, and highly leveraged small-caps are most exposed to higher discount rates and compressed household spending.
• -Brent Crude / WTI: Oil-cost increases linked to the US-Iran conflict cited by Hunter as a renewed inflation supply-chain risk. Rising energy costs compound headline CPI pressure, increasing tightening probability — a reinforcing loop for the APAC currency inflation supply shock thesis.
• -Gold: A stronger AUD and rising real Australian yields marginally reduce local gold demand, though Gold's broader USD-driven dynamic dominates.

Trading Considerations

The primary technical level to watch is $0.7005 (24h low) as immediate support, with $0.7038 (24h high) as near-term resistance. A sustained break above $0.7040 on volume would suggest markets are repricing toward a November hike. Key event risk is the November 3 RBA decision — positions held through the announcement face binary outcome volatility.

The RBA policy and oil shock framework remains the primary macro driver. Traders should monitor updated OIS pricing for the November meeting and watch Australian front-end bond yields for confirmation of the hike repricing signal.

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